Life expectancy rates have dropped across most high-income nations over the last few years according to research, reversing a decades-long trend of longevity gains. This declining life span, especially among middle-aged adults, has alarmed public health experts who cite “deaths of despair” as a leading cause.
What’s behind this emerging mortality pattern and what can be done to change the trajectory?
Understanding Life Expectancy
Life expectancy is the estimated average number of years a newborn can expect to live based on current death rates. It serves as an important population health measure.
Thanks to modern medicine and public health initiatives, life expectancy steadily increased globally throughout the 20th century, more than doubling from 35 years in 1900 to 72.6 years by 2019. The peak U.S. life expectancy was 78.9 years in 2014.
But recent data shows concerning regression.
Declining Life Expectancy Since 2014
U.S. Centers for Disease Control data reveals American life expectancy began declining from 2014-2017, dropping about 0.1 annually. It plateaued briefly before the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a dramatic 2.7 year plummet in 2020 alone.
Significant decreases ranging from several months to over 2 years occurred concurrently in other high-income countries like the U.K., Germany, Italy, and Australia over the same period according to research published in the International Journal of Epidemiology.
Some developing nations have also been affected, although not as universally.
Reversing Long-Term Gains
These decreasing life expectancy rates reversed a century-long improving trend. Researchers found it particularly concerning that midlife mortality rates increased most sharply, more so than in older demographics.
In the U.S., midlife all-cause mortality rose from 328.5 deaths per 100,000 in 2010 to 348.2 deaths per 100,000 in 2017 according to CDC data. Drug overdoses and alcohol abuse played a significant role.
Causes: Deaths of Despair
Experts cite a rise in “deaths of despair” – fatalities linked to substance misuse, suicide, obesity, and chronic disease complications – as the major driver reducing life expectancy, especially among middle-aged populations.
Princeton economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton broadly define deaths of despair as those caused by the loss of hope and profound despair. These disproportionately impact midlife adults facing fading economic opportunity, stagnant social mobility, shredded safety nets, and declining health.
Economic & Social Factors Contribute
Research reveals that declining life expectancy has hit hardest among middle-aged adults without a Bachelor’s degree. This points to economic inequality and lack of upward mobility as key issues. Struggling midlife adults feel hopeless about making positive change.
Long-term social isolation, relationship loss, and fading community ties may also disproportionately affect middle-aged adults in ways that degrade mental and physical health over time.
Potential Solutions
Reversing declining life expectancy will require holistic efforts on economic, political, social, and public health fronts. Some initiatives that could help include:
- Improving access to education, vocational training, and career mentorship
- Creating more pathways to upward economic mobility
- Addressing systemic disadvantages faced by marginalized groups
- Expanding access to substance abuse and mental health treatment
- Destigmatizing seeking psychological help
- Funding community-based programs to reduce isolation
- Making preventative healthcare more affordable and accessible
With creativity and willpower, policymakers and public health leaders can work to restore longer lifespans and make longevity gains equitable across populations.
